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The committee waited to make its decision until revisions in the National Income and Product Accounts, released on July 30 and August 27, 2010, clarified the 2009 time path of the two broadest measures of economic activity, real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross Domestic Income (real GDI).The committee noted that in the most recent data, for the second quarter of 2010, the average of real GDP and real GDI was 3.1 percent above its low in the second quarter of 2009 but remained 1.3 percent below the previous peak which was reached in the fourth quarter of 2007.The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy.Movements in these series can provide useful additional information when the broader measures are ambiguous about the date of the monthly peak or trough.

The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009, while the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of 2009.The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.

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