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In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.The second was that real GDI is a more comprehensive measure of income than real personal income less transfers, as it includes additional sources of income such as undistributed corporate profits.The committee's use of income-side measures, notably real GDI, is based on the accounting principle that the value of output equals the sum of the incomes that arise from producing the output.Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.
The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.
Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.
A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
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The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.